广州两剂天花疫苗接种的影响:一个中断的时间序列研究
Huan Zhang1,2,3, Yanhui Liu1, Xing Ye1
1Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics
|January 20, 2026
概括
广州 广州 广州
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 疫苗学 疫苗学 疫苗学
背景情况:
- 广州在2017年11月推出了一项自付的,两剂的麻疹疫苗接种计划.
- 了解该计划对小发病率的影响对于公共卫生政策至关重要.
- 以前的趋势没有显示出显著的月度变化,但青少年和成年人的发病率增加.
研究的目的:
- 评估双剂量水疫苗接种计划对水发病率的有效性.
- 为了分析干预后不同年龄组中水发病率趋势的变化.
- 评估该计划对整体人口健康的影响,并为未来的免疫策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用从2011年到2024年间对疹监测数据的中断时间序列分析.
- 比较干预前 (2011-2017年) 和干预后 (2018-2024年) 的时间.
- 使用季节性趋势分解和细分回归来分析发病率水平和趋势变化.
主要成果:
- 接种疫苗后的整体年度水发病率下降了28.1%.
- 在干预后,观察到水发病率每月显著下降1.8%.
- 在较年轻的儿童 (4-6岁:每月减少3.8%) 中出现了最显著的减少,在所有年龄组中都有显著的减少.
结论:
- 双剂量水疫苗接种计划显著减少了广州所有年龄组的水发病率.
- 该计划在接种疫苗的人群中展示了直接的保护,以及在未接种疫苗的人群中间接的群体效应.
- 这些研究结果支持将双剂量天花疫苗纳入国家常规免疫计划.
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