碳排放与全球死亡率的非线性关系:趋势,预测和健康公平
Xuan Lyu1, Xin Zhang1, Wanqian Xiong2
1School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
Environmental science & technology
|January 20, 2026
概括
温室气体 (GHG) 排放显示出与死亡率的复杂联系. 最初,排放量的增加与死亡人数的减少有关,但这反过来,强调了气候正义和脱碳的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 温室气体 (GHG) 排放往往与经济增长和改善的医疗保健有关.
- 然而,不断增加的温室气体排放量也可能导致环境退化和死亡率增加,呈现可持续性悖论.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2019年,调查76个国家的人均温室气体排放和死亡率之间的关联.
- 根据排放场景预测未来的死亡率趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球碳项目对温室气体排放和全球疾病负担2021年死亡率的数据.
- 使用统计分析来识别非线性关联和预测未来趋势.
主要成果:
- 在温室气体排放和死亡率之间发现了N形非线性关联,转折点为人均5到15.
- 死亡率最初在排放量低于5时下降,增加到15 (与非传染性疾病相关),随后略有下降.
- 健康不平等加剧,男性和老年人面临更高的气候相关死亡风险.
结论:
- 迫切需要具体的脱碳战略和气候正义政策.
- 调查结果强调了在气候变化中实现联合国可持续发展目标的复杂性.
- 低收入和中等收入国家在低排放场景下可能会看到更大的死亡率减少.
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