台北紧急救护车服务需求的长期预测和温度的相关影响
Ho Ting Wong1,2, Tuan-Duong Nguyen3
1Department of Business Administration, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, ntnu.edu.tw.
Emergency medicine international
|January 21, 2026
概括
未来在台北的紧急救护车服务 (EAS) 需求预计将大幅增加,特别是老年人群. 考虑到人口变化对于准确的EAS资源长期规划至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 台北面临着人口快速老龄化,对紧急服务的需求不断增加.
- 准确预测紧急救护车服务 (EAS) 需求对于资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从2015年到2051年,预测台北每年紧急救护车服务 (EAS) 的需求.
- 分析人口变化和每日平均气温对2036年和2051年EAS需求的影响.
主要方法:
- 从2015年利用了超过14万个紧急救护车服务患者记录.
- 从基准年考虑年龄性别结构变化的计算需求预测.
- 探索了每日平均气温和EAS需求之间的关系,有或没有人口调整.
主要成果:
- 没有人口变化的预测显著低估了对65岁以上人群的需求 (42%-90%) 和高估了年轻人群的需求 (35%-55%).
- 2051年,平均每日温度与EAS需求之间的关系在包括人口变化时显示出上升的转变和增加的曲率.
结论:
- 准确的长期EAS需求预测对台北和台湾至关重要.
- 人口变化,特别是人口老龄化,需要对紧急医疗服务进行战略规划.
- 纳入年龄性别结构变化可以提高对未来EAS需求的预测准确度.
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