印度的自杀:预测立即投资以挽救生命
Amit K Mishra1, Arvind K Shukla1, Manikandan Mani2
1Department of Community and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India.
概括
印度的自杀率是一个日益严重的公共卫生问题,尽管增长速度放缓,但绝对数字预计会增加. 预测分析对于有效的干预策略至关重要,以防止未来的自杀事件.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 自杀是可以预防的全球公共卫生问题,不成比例地影响低收入和中等收入国家.
- 印度面临着相当大的自杀负担,在2022年有170,924起报道自杀事件.
- 预测性分析对于预测自杀风险和规划干预措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用历史数据预测印度未来的自杀趋势.
- 分析自杀数字和率的轨迹.
主要方法:
- 利用来自国家犯罪记录局报告 (1967-2021) 的自杀数据.
- 使用自回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 建模用于预测.
- 在2022-2026年5年期间预测的自杀案例.
主要成果:
- 印度的自杀人数在2012-2017年期间下降后呈现出增长趋势.
- 2020年,在COVID-19大流行期间,自杀事件显著增加.
- 阿里马模型预测,自2022年至2026年,绝对自杀人数将继续增加,增长率将有所下降.
结论:
- 印度绝对的自杀人数仍然是一个严重的公共卫生问题.
- 虽然每年增长率正在下降,但绝对数字的上升表明潜在的流行病.
- 迫切需要增加对自杀预防策略的投资.
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