1990-2050年中国潜伏结核病感染:针对年龄查的GBD信息预测
Qing-Qing Jiang1, Xiao-Yu Zhang2, Shao-Xian Li3
1Department of Hospital Infection Management, Qishan Hospital of Yantai, Yantai, China.
Frontiers in public health
|January 21, 2026
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病建模传染病建模
背景情况:
- 中国有相当大的潜在结核病感染 (LTBI) 负担.
- 中国的长度趋势和年龄特定的LTBI数据没有得到充分的量化.
- 这种缺乏数据阻碍了有效的,有针对性的控制策略.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,分析中国大陆的长度趋势和LTBI的特定年龄负担.
- 预测未来的LTBI流行和病例到2050年.
- 为结核病提供有针对性的控制和消除策略的信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据.
- 分析了年龄标准化的LTBI患病率 (ASPR) 和病例数.
- 用于时间趋势分析的就业joinpoint回归.
- 应用年龄周期队列 (APC) 和贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (BAPC) 建模,用于年龄/队列效应和未来预测.
主要成果:
- 中国的LTBI病例在1990年至2021年间增加了33.28%,尽管ASPR的数量正在下降.
- 中国的高峰LTBI风险年龄范围 (25-60岁) 比全球高峰 (20-29岁) 更广.
- 中国的LTBI患病率预计将在2036年之前下降,然后在2050年复苏;病例预计将在2029年达到顶峰.
结论:
- 中国大陆表现出长期的LTBI风险窗口,并预计在2036年后的负担会重新出现.
- 建议对50-69岁的个人进行针对年龄的查.
- 加强监测系统对于实现结核病消除目标至关重要.
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