确定热感警报系统的特定位置值,以减轻日本的热中风死亡率
Vera Ling Hui Phung1, Yasushi Honda2, Kazutaka Oka2
1Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan.
Environment & health (Washington, D.C.)
|January 21, 2026
概括
日本目前的热预警系统门是不够的. 修订了大约31°CWBGT的门,可以将全国范围内可预防的热中风死亡人数减少一半,考虑到区域差异.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
背景情况:
- 日本目前的全国热预警系统 (HWS) 使用湿球温度 (WBGT) 门为33°C.
- 这一门不足以解决热敏度和热中风死亡率的区域差异.
- 现有的HWS可能无法有效地减轻在不同县的可预防的热中风死亡.
研究的目的:
- 确定一个关键的WBGT门,以减少日本各地可预防的热中风死亡率.
- 评估当前HWS值在缓解与热相关死亡的有效性.
- 为了确定热敏度和最佳预警值的区域和人口差异.
主要方法:
- 对所有47个日本县的日热中风死亡率数据 (ICD-10:X30;2010-2019) 的分析.
- 应用一个时间分层的案例交叉设计与有条件的准波松回归和分布式滞后非线性模型.
- 估计所需的WBGT值,以减少50%的可预防的热中风死亡率 (目标50),包括子组分析.
主要成果:
- 总共记录了9702例热中风死亡人数,夏末和老年人中发病率较高.
- 目前的HWS值 (WBGTmax 33°C) 仅占可预防的与热有关的死亡人数的2%-3%.
- 确定了一个新的关键值 (WBGTmax约31°C),能够在大多数县实现50目标,北方地区和夏季早期需要更低的值.
结论:
- 目前的33°C的HWS WBGT值不足以缓解全国范围内的热中风死亡率.
- 建议修订约31°CWBGT的临界值,以有效地将可预防的热中风死亡人数减少一半.
- 结果支持修订日本的HWS,以纳入区域和时间变化,以改善对热浪的公共卫生保护.
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