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登革热爆发的预测和预警系统:更新的叙述审查

José Micael Ferreira da Costa¹, Alexandre Cunha Costa², Cleiton da Silva Silveira¹

¹Universidade Federal do Ceará, Departamento de Engenharia Hidráulica e Ambiental, Fortaleza, CE, Brasil.

Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical

|January 21, 2026

概括

本综述分析了登革热爆发预测和预警系统,发现使用气象数据的先进模型提供了优异的短期预报. 在数据质量和公共卫生系统实施方面仍然存在挑战.

科学领域:

公共卫生公共卫生
流行病学流行病学
数据科学数据科学数据科学

背景情况:

登革热对全球健康构成重大威胁,需要有效的预测和预警系统.
现有的文献介绍了预测登革热爆发的各种方法.

研究的目的:

系统地审查和综合有关登革热爆发预测和预警系统的发现.
识别当前系统的方法,关键变量,性能和局限性.

主要方法:

一个五阶段的审查过程,包括文献调查,主题范围定义,探索性审查,分类,批判性分析和叙事综合.
选择了14篇关于预测和7篇关于预警系统的文章.
分析统计,机器学习和深度学习模型.

主要成果:

气象和气候变量是最常用的,其次是流行病学和昆虫学数据.
随机森林和长期短期记忆模型对短期预测 (长达1周) 的预测准确度很高.
高级预警系统 (例如,EWARS-TDR,ADSEWS) 集成多个数据源,比传统方法更长的交付时间 (长达13周).

结论:

虽然先进的模型显示出希望,但数据质量,可用性,模型可复制性和实施方面的挑战仍然存在.
需要进一步的研究和开发,以加强这些系统在公共卫生中的实际应用.
综合多种数据源和先进的建模技术可以改善登革热监测和应对工作.

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