瘟疫选择了谁:探索黑死病死亡率的交叉社会风险
1School of HESBS, Moreno Valley College, Moreno Valley, California, USA.
American journal of biological anthropology
|January 22, 2026
概括
黑死病对死亡风险的影响因年龄和性别而异. 中年男性面临更高的死亡率,突出了流行病如何与现有的社会和生物脆弱性相互作用.
科学领域:
- 古病理学 古病理学
- 生物考古学的生物考古学
- 历史流行病学 历史流行病学
背景情况:
- 黑死病 (十四世纪的流行病) 对人口的影响不成比例,但人口统计学对死亡风险的影响仍然不完全理解.
- 之前的研究经常独立地检查年龄或性别,缺乏对交叉漏洞的细微理解.
研究的目的:
- 调查人口因素,特别是年龄和性别的交集,如何影响黑死病期间的死亡风险.
- 为了测试年轻男性面临复合死亡风险的假设.
主要方法:
- 使用Wellcome骨科研究数据库 (WORD) 来分析七个中世纪伦敦墓地的骨数据.
- 后勤回归和卡普兰-梅尔曲线评估了瘟疫死亡风险,控制了墓地类型,背景和脆弱性标记.
- 缺少的数据是使用 missForest.
主要成果:
- 年龄和性别的相互作用表明,52-64岁的男性具有统计学上显著的保护作用,这表明瘟疫死亡率的几率较低.
- 虚弱的存在是死亡风险的一个重要因素.
- 墓地类型 (平民/宗教) 和城市/农村背景并不是统计学上显著的预测因素.
结论:
- 黑死病扩大了现有的生物和社会脆弱性,中年男性的死亡风险更高.
- 在塑造瘟疫死亡率方面,生物易感性似乎超过了社会劣势.
- 流行病受到社会不平等的影响,为当前的健康差异提供了洞察力.
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