全球供应链中的系统性风险和级联动态
Xin Ouyang1,2,3, Litao Liu1,2, Qiance Liu3
1Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Environmental science and ecotechnology
|January 22, 2026
概括
由于地缘政治紧张局势,全球供应链面临越来越多的风险. 一项新的研究揭示了系统脆弱性和级联失败,强调需要国际合作,以确保低碳技术转型.
科学领域:
- * 地球与环境科学
- * 经济学 * 经济学
- * 系统工程 * 系统工程
背景情况:
- *像这样的关键矿物质对于全球向低碳技术过渡至关重要.
- *互联的供应链容易受到地缘政治紧张局势和干扰的影响.
- *目前的风险评估往往孤立商品,忽视上下游的依赖关系.
研究的目的:
- *分析1998年至2019年全球流中的系统风险.
- * 确定供应链中破坏的漏洞和传播途径.
- * 评估国家对供应链冲击的抵御力.
主要方法:
- * 综合贸易相关材料流分析,采用多层冲击传播模型.
- *分析了全球230个国家和地区的流量.
- * 通过水平-垂直和直接-间接路径模拟的干扰传播.
主要成果:
- * 干扰通过复杂的途径传播,将风险集中在采矿,但在炼油-制造业累积.
- *级联失败会产生一个"雪崩网络",比物理供应链密度高四倍.
- *脆弱性低但暴露度高的国家 (例如,印度尼西亚,南非,墨西哥) 非常容易受到影响.
结论:
- * 供应链中的全球系统性风险在过去二十年中呈现出波动性的上升趋势.
- *国家缓解战略不足;系统层面的协调至关重要.
- * 实现供应链弹性需要阶段意识,多边合作.
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