从社交媒体行为预测心理健康的可解释机器学习:一个嵌套的交叉验证研究与SHAP和LIME可解释性
Kamini Lamba1, Shalli Rani2, Mohammad Shabaz3
1Chitkara University Institute of Engineering and Technology, Chitkara University, Rajpura, Punjab, 140401, India.
Discover mental health
|January 22, 2026
概括
这项研究介绍了一种可解释的机器学习框架,用于预测社交媒体行为的抑郁风险. 该模型准确地识别了关键的行为标记,为心理健康应用提供了透明的见解.
科学领域:
- 计算精神病学是一种计算精神病学.
- 数字心理健康数字心理健康
- 机器学习在医疗保健中的应用
背景情况:
- 社交媒体行为为早期发现心理困扰提供了潜在的潜力.
- 现有的预测模型往往缺乏透明度,阻碍其在临床心理健康环境中使用.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一种可解释的机器学习 (XAI) 框架,用于使用社交媒体行为数据预测自我报告的抑郁风险.
- 确定与抑郁风险相关的关键行为标志物,并评估模型的透明度和可靠性.
主要方法:
- 利用了481名匿名社交媒体用户的数据集.
- 采用嵌套的5×5交叉验证策略来训练和测试三个监督学习模型.
- 综合SHAP (夏普利添加式解释) 模型可解释性和评估模型校准使用可靠性曲线和预期校准误差 (ECE).
主要成果:
- 随机森林模型实现了最高的性能 (精度=84.2%,AUC=0.88) 并证明了精确校准的概率估计.
- 确定了重要的行为标记,包括屏幕时间,被动滚动,夜间使用和压力驱动的参与.
- SHAP分析在多个随机种子中提供了稳定和一致的特征排名,支持解释可靠性.
结论:
- 开发的XAI框架为从社交媒体行为中预测抑郁风险提供了一个透明和可解释的方法.
- 这些发现表明,可解释的模型输出可以为心理健康提供个性化的数字干预信息.
- 未来的研究应该专注于更大的数据集,多式联运数据集成和临床验证,以提高可通用性.
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