预测新兴经济体的康复需求:基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的多国分析
Lang Chen1, Chuwei Tian2, Zhongkai Bian3
1Department of Rehabilitation, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, PR China; School of Medicine, Southeast University, NO. 87 Ding Jia Qiao, Nanjing, PR China.
International journal of nursing studies
|January 22, 2026
概括
从1990年到2021年,金国家的康复需求显著增加了72.2%,预计到2036年将达到147亿,其中肌肉骨疾病和听力损失是主要原因.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 康复医学 康复医学 康复医学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 新兴经济体,包括金国家,显著影响全球康复需求.
- 金国家内部的康复需求尚未得到充分量化.
- 本研究通过分析过去的趋势和预测金国家未来的康复需求来解决这一差距.
研究的目的:
- 调查1990年至2021年金国家康复需求的趋势.
- 预测到2036年这些国家的康复需求的未来轨迹.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据,涵盖了8个疾病类别和27个个别疾病.
- 雇员加入点回归模型来分析年龄标准化利率及其年度百分比变化.
- 应用自回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型,预测到2036年的康复需求.
主要成果:
- 需要康复的总流行病例增加了72.2% (1990-2021年),在2021年达到10亿93亿.
- 与同一时期相比,残疾人生活的年数增加了85.6%,在2021年总计1.47亿.
- 尽管年龄标准化率下降,但预计到2036年,需要康复的绝对人数将达到1.469亿,主要原因是肌肉骨系统疾病和听力损失.
结论:
- 在过去的三十年里,金国家康复需求显著增加,预计将继续增加.
- 肌肉骨疾病和听力损失是康复需求的最重要的驱动因素.
- 强烈建议将康复服务,特别是针对这些疾病的康复服务,纳入初级保健系统.
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