在巴基斯坦的麻疹发病率的时间序列预测,2014-2024年
Aruba Adnan1, Olaf Berke1,2,3,4
1Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada.
Asia-Pacific journal of public health
|January 22, 2026
概括
巴基斯坦的麻疹病例正在增加,预计冬季的暴增. 八月至九月的战略疫苗接种活动可以有效地打击麻疹传播的增加.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 免疫接种 免疫接种
背景情况:
- 麻疹在巴基斯坦仍然是流行病,尽管全球接种疫苗的倡议,但它仍然是一个重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 了解传播模式和复发因素对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定巴基斯坦麻疹发病率的时间模式.
- 为了调查麻疹复发的驱动因素.
- 确定麻疹疫苗接种运动的最佳时间.
主要方法:
- 来自世卫组织国际麻疹数据库的月度麻疹发病率数据 (2014-2024) 的时间序列分析.
- 应用一个自动化的季节性自回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型进行预测.
- 对影响因素的分析,包括疫苗覆盖率和气候变化影响.
主要成果:
- 观察到每月麻疹病例的增加趋势,冬季有季节性高峰 (平均高点为1038例),夏季有低点 (平均低点为304例).
- 萨里马模型预测,未来两年麻疹病例将增加三倍.
- 常规疫苗覆盖率低,气候变化引发的移民和城市拥挤被确定为传播的关键因素.
结论:
- 补充疫苗接种活动对于减轻预计麻疹病例的增加至关重要.
- 在8月和9月进行这些活动可以有效地抵消从10月开始的传染季节性增加.
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