深度学习架构用于模拟和预测加纳中风病例
Abdul-Karim Iddrisu1, Morongwa Gabanakgosi1, Abubakar Hudu Siddick2
1Department of Statistics, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana.
概括
加纳面临着很高的中风负担,深度学习模型预测趋势会稳定. 长期短期记忆 (LSTM) 模型在预测未来中风发病率方面被证明是最有效的.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 医疗保健中的人工智能
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,中风是导致死亡和残疾的主要原因,加纳受到严重影响.
- 在加纳,有限的本地数据和预测模型阻碍了有效的中风干预计划.
- 这项研究通过建模中风发病率来解决对数据驱动公共卫生战略的需求.
研究的目的:
- 使用先进的深度学习技术,模拟和预测加纳中风发生率.
- 确定最有效的深度学习模型用于中风发病率预测.
- 为预防和管理中风的公共卫生战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了加纳卫生服务 (2018-2023) 的每月中风病例数据.
- 使用的长期短期记忆 (LSTM),贝叶斯式LSTM (BLSTM),卷积式LSTM (ConvLSTM) 和贝叶斯式ConvLSTM (BConvLSTM) 模型.
- 包括糖尿病患病率作为共同变量,并使用MAE,MSE,RMSE和MAPE评估模型.
主要成果:
- LSTM和BLSTM模型显示出强大的预测性能,LSTM显示出最小的错误.
- 在ConvLSTM和BConvLSTM模型中,表现明显不佳.
- 预测显示,在2024年 (每月1,694-2,007例) 出现初始变化,然后在2028年 (每月1,774-1,781例) 稳定.
结论:
- 加纳面临着持续高,但稳定的中风负担.
- 强调急需针对可修改风险因素的干预措施,特别是糖尿病.
- 建议LSTM作为预测加纳中风发病率的最佳模型.
相关概念视频
Polymer Classification: Architecture
3.7K
Polymers are classified as linear or branched on the basis of their chain architecture. The polymer chains in linear polymers have a long chain-like structure with minimal to no branching at all. Even if a polymer features large substituent groups on the monomer, which appear as branches to the skeleton, it is not considered a branched polymer. A branched polymer contains secondary polymer chains that arise from the main polymer chain. The branching occurs when the polymer growth shifts from...
3.7K
Avoidance Learning and Learned Helplessness
2.5K
Avoidance learning and learned helplessness are critical concepts in understanding behavioral responses to negative stimuli.
Avoidance learning occurs when an organism learns that a specific behavior can prevent an unpleasant outcome. For example, a student who receives a bad grade may start studying harder to avoid future poor grades. This behavior persists even when the negative outcome is no longer present. Avoidance learning is powerful because it maintains behavior in the absence of the...
Avoidance learning occurs when an organism learns that a specific behavior can prevent an unpleasant outcome. For example, a student who receives a bad grade may start studying harder to avoid future poor grades. This behavior persists even when the negative outcome is no longer present. Avoidance learning is powerful because it maintains behavior in the absence of the...
2.5K
Learning Disabilities
583
Learning disabilities are cognitive disorders caused by neurological impairments that affect cognitive functions like language and reading, without indicating overall intellectual or developmental challenges. These disabilities differ from global intellectual or developmental disabilities as they are limited to distinct cognitive functions. Common learning disabilities include dysgraphia, dyslexia, and dyscalculia, each of which impacts unique aspects of learning.
Dyslexia
Dyslexia is a...
Dyslexia
Dyslexia is a...
583
Associative Learning
1.3K
Associative learning is a fundamental concept in behavioral psychology, wherein a connection is established between two stimuli or events, leading to a learned response. This process is critical in understanding how behaviors are acquired and modified. Conditioning, the mechanism through which associations are formed, can be divided into two main types: classical conditioning and operant conditioning, each elucidating different aspects of associative learning.
Classical conditioning, also known...
Classical conditioning, also known...
1.3K
Purposive Learning
459
E. C. Tolman emphasized the purposiveness of behavior — the idea that much of our behavior is goal-directed. For instance, employees who aim for a promotion work diligently to meet their targets. Tolman argued that when classical conditioning and operant conditioning occur, the organism acquires certain expectations. In classical conditioning, a child might fear a dog because they expect it to bite. In operant conditioning, a person might consistently work overtime because they expect a...
459
Observational Learning
870
Albert Bandura's observational learning, also known as imitation or modeling, occurs when a person observes and imitates another's behavior. It is a quicker process than operant conditioning. A well-known example is the Bobo doll study, where children who saw an adult acting aggressively towards the doll were more likely to act aggressively when left alone, compared to those who observed a nonaggressive adult. Many psychologists view observational learning as a form of latent learning...
870


