检测极端和季节性蒸发转化观测中的人类诱导的变化
Marius Egli1, Sebastian Sippel2, Reto Knutti3
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland. marius.egli@env.ethz.ch.
Nature communications
|January 23, 2026
概括
全球变暖加剧了极端蒸发透气 (ET) 事件,增加了突然干旱的风险. 虽然季节性ET显示混合趋势,但极端ET普遍上升或保持稳定,影响水的可用性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升和辐射增加了蒸发需求.
- 这种需求对实际蒸发转化 (ET) 的影响仍然不确定,特别是考虑到有限的水供应.
- 人为气候变化是影响这些水文过程的关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 通过气候模型和观测数据,研究极端和季节性蒸发转化 (ET) 的变化.
- 为了确定蒸发需求的增加是否转化为观测记录中ET的增加.
- 评估气候变化导致的高ET极端的加剧.
主要方法:
- 气候模型输出的分析和两个观测数据集,涵盖1980-2023.
- 检查高ET极端的变化,由高辐射和高温时期驱动.
- 评估季节平均ET和极端ET趋势的区域变化.
主要成果:
- 高ET极端被人类气候变化加剧.
- 观测数据显示极端和季节性ET的强变化.
- 季节平均ET表现出混合的区域增加和减少,而极端ET普遍增加或没有显著变化.
结论:
- 具有显著的极端ET趋势的地区面临着快速干旱的风险.
- 观察到的极端ET的增加与物理理解和气候模型预测相一致.
- 了解这些ET趋势对于预测未来的水资源供应和干旱影响至关重要.
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