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在预测风险承担频率时,一般风险偏好不足.
Maja Asp1, Marielle Abed1, Philip Millroth2
1Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, P.O. Box 1225, Uppsala, SE-751 42, Sweden.
Scientific reports
|January 23, 2026
概括
冲动性,寻找感觉和性别显著预测人们经常冒险的频率. 一般的风险偏好对于理解现实生活中的冒险行为可能不如以前想象的那么重要.
科学领域:
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 风险承担在各种人类活动中普遍存在,包括金融,犯罪和健康决策.
- 自我报告的风险偏好传统上是预测冒险行为的核心.
- 其他因素,如人口统计学,个性和心理特征也涉及,但对预测能力的研究较少.
研究的目的:
- 确定现实生活中风险承担频率的关键预测因素.
- 评估各种个别差异变量的相对重要性.
主要方法:
- 调查了760名受访者关于他们参与冒险行为.
- 收集了关于自我报告的风险偏好,冲动性,寻找感觉,个性特征和人口统计数据的数据.
- 采用贝叶斯的多模型推理来进行预测分析.
主要成果:
- 冲动性,寻找感觉,健康和社会风险偏好以及性别是风险承担频率的最强有力的预测因素.
- 这些因素的总和提供了一个比单独的一般风险偏好更强大的预测.
结论:
- 预测现实生活中的风险承担频率需要同时检查多个变量.
- 在现有理论中,一般风险偏好概念的核心作用可能需要重新评估.

