由开放式数据和集成机器学习模型揭示的湖泊中蓝藻细菌繁殖的未来风险
Cheng Chen1, Yang Liu2, Zheng Sun2
1The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China; Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China.
Water research
|January 24, 2026
概括
预计未来中国的蓝藻细菌繁殖量将会增加,主要是由于气候变化和人类活动. 温度显著影响了开花的范围,特别是在中国南部,需要生态风险管理策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 蓝菌的繁荣带来了生态风险,气候变化和人类活动加剧了这种风险.
- 在大陆范围内,对花动态的理解受到数据稀缺和模型不确定性的限制.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种可靠的方法,用于自动,大陆范围检测蓝藻细菌的开花.
- 在气候变化情景下预测未来的蓝藻细菌繁殖趋势.
主要方法:
- 基于国际照明委员会 (CIE) 的改进的算法与多面罩校正被用于花检测.
- 从1984年至2021年间的Landsat卫星图像 (30米分辨率) 覆盖了185个中国湖泊.
- 使用贝叶斯模型平均 (BMA) 的机器学习预测模型预测了未来的花 (2021-2100).
主要成果:
- 高的蓝藻细菌繁殖比例集中在中国东部,其地理中心向南和向东转移.
- 在过去的40年里,蓝藻细菌的开花面积每年增加0.11%.
- 气候 (42.0%) 和人类活动 (32.3%) 是主要的驱动因素,温度显示出显著的积极影响.
结论:
- 预计蓝藻细菌的开花范围将每十年增加0.34%,特别是在中国南部.
- 温度是未来开花的关键驱动因素,突出了气候变化和人类活动之间的相互作用.
- 开发的方法可用于在不断变化的环境中进行湖泊生态风险管理.
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