人类长寿可持续发展的潜力和挑战
Florian Bonnet1, Ina Alliger2, Carlo-Giovanni Camarda1
1French Institute for Demographic Studies (Ined), Aubervilliers, France.
Nature communications
|January 24, 2026
概括
西欧的预期寿命增长正在放缓,尤其是在以前快速改善的地区. 中年人 (55-74岁) 的死亡率增加与这一趋势有关,这突显了对长寿的详细地理分析的需要.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 在高收入国家,预期寿命的增长正在放缓,这引起了人们对人类寿命的担忧.
- 死亡率趋势的区域差异对于理解长寿进展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 检查1992-2019年西欧地区的地方死亡率趋势.
- 确定导致预期寿命增长放缓的因素.
- 评估可持续长寿进展的潜力和挑战.
主要方法:
- 分析西欧450个地方的死亡率趋势.
- 1992-2005年和2005-2019年之间预期寿命变化的比较.
- 预期寿命变化与特定年龄组 (55-74) 的死亡率的关联.
主要成果:
- 从1992年到2005年,预期寿命的增长是显著的和广泛的,区域趋同迅速.
- 从2005年到2019年,以前快速改善的地区的增长放缓,而前沿地区的增长保持稳定.
- 缓慢的预期寿命增长与55-74岁的死亡率增加相关,特别是在德国和法国.
结论:
- 预期寿命增长的减缓与中年人口的死亡率增加有关.
- 持续的长寿进展是可能的,前沿地区的稳定增长表明了这一点.
- 对死亡率趋势的细粒度地理监测对于理解和应对长寿挑战至关重要.
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