对区域海平面趋势估计信号分解方法的比较分析:朝鲜半岛的一个案例研究
Young Jin Kim1, Hyuk Kang2, Hark-Soo Song2
1Center for Global R&D Data Analysis, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information, Seoul, 02456, Korea.
Scientific reports
|January 24, 2026
概括
估计区域海平面上升 (SLR) 是复杂的. 这项研究发现,不同的分析方法,包括完整合体实证模式分解与适应噪声 (CEEMDAN),在朝鲜半岛周围产生显著不同的SLR速率和时间模式.
科学领域:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
背景情况:
- 区域海平面上升 (SLR) 分析需要先进的方法来捕捉超出线性趋势的时间变化.
- 韩半岛,与其多样化的周边海域,作为一个理想的位置来测试不同的单反相机估计技术.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较完整集体实证模式分解与自适应噪声 (CEEMDAN),集体实证模式分解 (EEMD) 和线性回归在估计区域SLR中的性能.
- 研究方法选择如何影响SLR速率估计和时间模式的检测.
- 突出CEEMDAN在分析SLR研究的高质量,预处理的海洋数据方面的潜力.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自朝鲜半岛的21个站的61年的潮计数据 (1960-2020年).
- 应用并比较了三个分析方法:CEEMDAN,EEMD和线性回归.
- 引入基于振幅的空间聚类来进行一致性检查,并展示了CEEMDAN参数优化策略.
主要成果:
- 这三种方法产生了系统不同的SLR估计值,线性回归产生了最高值,EEMD产生了最低值.
- 在SLR速率估计中的方法差异在特定站点达到2.22mm/年.
- CEEMDAN揭示了时间变化的单反相机模式,包括几个站的加速度周期,尽管需要进一步验证.
结论:
- 方法选择给区域SLR估计带来了相当大的不确定性,即使是在局部地区.
- CEEMDAN在检测线性方法错过的时间变化方面表现有前途,但将信号与文物区分开来是具有挑战性的.
- 强调在区域SLR研究中需要方法标准化,并为评估沿海时间序列分析中的基于分解的方法提供框架.
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