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含糖饮料的警告标签和税收:在考虑实施时模拟的影响
Natalie Riva Smith1, Jennifer L Cruz2, Anna H Grummon3
1Department of Health Policy and Management, University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
American journal of preventive medicine
|January 25, 2026
概括
与警告标签和消费税一样,含糖饮料政策可以显著减少2型糖尿病 (T2D) 病例. 政策设计和长期维持对于最大限度地影响公共健康至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生政策 卫生政策
背景情况:
- 含糖饮料 (SSB) 政策,包括警告标签和消费税,显示出预防2型糖尿病 (T2D) 的潜力.
- 之前的模拟模型没有一致评估SSB警告标签或联合标签和税收政策的T2D预防影响.
- 很少有模型将设计和维持等政策实施因素纳入结果预测中.
研究的目的:
- 评估SSB警告标签和消费税政策对美国成年人T2D预防的潜在影响.
- 为了比较不同警告标签设计 (图形与文本) 和税收维持场景的有效性.
- 评估政策实施因素对T2D减少结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用一个微模拟模型,模拟美国成年人 (18-64岁) 10年内的T2D发展.
- 该模型结合了国家健康和营养检查调查 (2017-18年) 和美国糖尿病监测系统的数据.
- 政策情景包括图形/文本警告标签和持续或废除0.02美元/液司的消费税,与现状相比.
主要成果:
- 预计图形警告标签可以避免945,000例T2D病例,而文本标签可以在10年内避免480,000例.
- 据估计,持续的0.02美元/液司的消费税可以避免1,260,000例T2D病例.
- 一年后废除的税收只能避免7.8万起T2D案件,这凸显了政策维持的重要性.
结论:
- SSB政策是一个可行的策略,可以显著降低T2D的负担.
- 在预防T2D方面,SSB政策的有效性受到其设计和持续实施的强烈影响.
- 政策设计和长期承诺对于最大限度地提高T2D预防的公共卫生效益至关重要.
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