在使用复合指数尺度扩大登革热载体范围内的息地质量评估
Muhammad Naeem1,2, Lei Zhu1, Nawaz Haider Bashir1
1College of Biological Resource and Food Engineering Qujing Normal University Qujing China.
Ecology and evolution
|January 26, 2026
概括
气候变化正在扩大疾病载体息地,增加了Aedes aegypti和Aedes albopictus蚊子的风险. 一个新的复合指数尺度 (CIS) 显示,许多预测区域的息地质量有所改善,增加了登革热传播风险.
科学领域:
- 生态与环境科学 生态与环境科学
- 载体传播疾病流行病学
- 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在改变物种分布,影响疾病载体种群及其地理范围.
- 评估新适合地区的息地质量对于准确的疾病载体风险评估至关重要.
- 在未来的气候情景下,了解蚊子种群在扩大范围的长期生存能力是一个关键的研究缺口.
研究的目的:
- 在亚洲的历史和未来气候场景中,对Aedes aegypti和Aedes albopictus蚊子的息地适宜性进行预测和量化息地质量.
- 引入和验证一个复合指数尺度 (CIS),以精细评估与疾病载体种群相关的息地质量.
- 评估与蚊子息地适合性的转变相关的疾病传播风险的潜在增加.
主要方法:
- 在历史和未来气候场景 (SSP1-4) 下,利用MaxEnt建模来预测Aedes物种的息地适合性.
- 开发并应用一个综合指数尺度 (CIS),包括生物气候适应性,息地变化,利基范围,利基位置和范围变化.
- 量化脆弱息地区域 (千米2),将过去的基线与未来的预测进行比较,使用≥0.5的适宜性值.
主要成果:
- 过去的易受伤害的息地为Aedes aegypti是1,698,972平方公里,而Aedes albopictus是1,328,577平方公里.
- 未来的预测表明,到21世纪末,Aedes aegypti的脆弱适合息地将增加到1,991,5962,220,554平方公里,而Aedes albopictus的适合息地将增加到1,589,2401,734,846平方公里.
- 在Aedes aegypti的16种情景中,CIS在12种情景中显示了改善的息地质量,在Aedes albopictus的16种情景中,在10种情景中显示了高度脆弱性,与脆弱的像素数量有显著的相关性.
结论:
- 综合指数尺度 (CIS) 提供了一个可靠的衡量标准,用于评估息地质量和相关的疾病载体风险.
- 预计Aedes aegypti和Aedes albopictus适合和优质息地的增加表明登革热传播的风险增加.
- 有效的息地质量评估对于预测和减轻气候变化对载体传播疾病动态的影响至关重要.
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