考虑传统的储量并不能提高河流酸盐负载模型预测的准确性
James N Carleton1, Robert D Sabo1
1Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Mail Code 8623R), 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20460, United States of America.
Environmental research. Water
|January 26, 2026
概括
流域中遗留的储量似乎没有显著地延迟河流荷载的下降. 简单的模型最好地解释了数据,表明了的快速处理而不是长期存储效应.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 生物地质化学生物地质化学
背景情况:
- 遗留的储存被假设导致营养管理和减少河流负载之间的时间滞后.
- 过程模型被用来估计这些遗留的储量和时间滞后.
- 建模中的等级最终性引发了对解释关于遗留的模型结果的确定性的担忧.
研究的目的:
- 调查遗留储存在流域气供应中的作用.
- 通过使用各种工艺模型,评估输入和河流负载之间的时间滞后.
- 解决与命运和运输研究中的模型结构和等效性相关的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 开发了六种不同复杂度的命运和运输模型.
- 校准模型使用254个美国地点的年度余和河流酸 (NO3-N) 负载数据.
- 与多十年的NO3-N产量时间序列相比,最小化的二次错误总和.
主要成果:
- 所有模型都表明,它们对大多数数据集都很适合.
- 校准结果表明,生物地化学或水文遗留储存的滞后贡献最小.
- 最简单的模型,一个单个混合良好的隔间,根据调整的Akaike信息标准表现最好.
结论:
- 目前的模型校准不支持有影响力的遗留储存的存在.
- 然而,考虑到输入中的时间自相关性表明,不可能排除长达十年的潜在交付延迟.
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