一个双阶段的数据驱动的基于过程的模型,用于种植和产量预测:结合可解释的人工智能和作物建模.
Zheng Ni1, Yanbin Chang1, Joshua Kemp2
1School of Industrial Engineering and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, United States.
Frontiers in plant science
|January 26, 2026
概括
这项研究介绍了一种可解释的杂交作物模型,用于种植. 它使用数据驱动和基于过程的方法来预测产量和识别精英混合物,提高农业效率和可持续性.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
- 植物育种 植物育种
背景情况:
- 全球人口增长需要先进的育种方法来增加粮食供应.
- 是一种重要的谷物作物,种类多样 (谷物,料,双重用途,光周期敏感),需要量身定制的育种策略.
- 基因型x环境 (GxE) 相互作用显著影响作物表现,需要复杂的建模方法.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种基于数据和过程的双阶段作物模型,用于种植.
- 通过分析基因型x环境 (GxE) 影响,提供育种建议.
- 通过可解释的人工智能方法提高作物模型的解释性和灵活性.
主要方法:
- 整合了基于过程的作物模型与可解释的数据驱动技术.
- 利用7年的每小时天气数据,土壤因素,管理实践和来自651名男性和131名女性的家长信息.
- 预计每小时的干重 (叶子,茎,谷物) 和最终产量,包括管理实践.
主要成果:
- 在各种环境条件下实现了16% - 19%的相对根平均平方误差,证明了强大的预测准确性.
- 成功识别了四种不同类型的精英杂交,减少了对广泛现场试验的需求.
- 揭示了GxE相互作用的显著变异性,强调了环境特定育种策略的重要性.
结论:
- 可解释混合模型框架显著改善了作物建模和植物育种.
- 这种方法通过优化育种建议来提高农业效率和可持续性.
- 基于GxE分析的定制育种策略对于最大限度地提高作物性能至关重要.
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