美国的单剂量HPV疫苗接种 - - 多模型分析分析
Emily A Burger1,2, Jean-François Laprise3, Jennifer C Spencer4
1Department of Health Policy and Management, Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Lancet regional health. Americas
|January 26, 2026
概括
预计单剂量人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 疫苗策略将维持宫癌的显著减少,即使有效性较低或保护力减弱. 这支持疫苗政策的潜在转变,以长期影响健康.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 疫苗学 疫苗学 疫苗学
背景情况:
- 新出现的证据支持单剂量人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 疫苗接种的非劣质疗效.
- 这导致重新评估目前的多剂量HPV疫苗接种计划.
- 政策决策需要了解美国单剂量HPV疫苗接种对健康的长期影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估美国采用单剂量HPV疫苗的长期健康影响.
- 为了为有关HPV疫苗接种计划的政策审议提供信息.
- 预测从两剂接种到单剂接种HPV疫苗的转换的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用两种经过验证的基于个体的HPV传播和宫癌的模拟模型.
- 模拟场景包括继续两剂疫苗接种和替代单剂策略,有效性和持续时间各不相同.
- 预计的结果包括2005-2099年HPV-16感染和子宫癌的年龄标准化发病率.
主要成果:
- 预计两剂和单剂HPV疫苗接种计划将在2099年之前几乎消除HPV-16感染,并将子宫癌发病率降低90%以上.
- 单剂效率较低或保护程度下降的情景显示,宫癌发病率的增加很小 (少于2个百分点).
- 消除子宫癌的时间框架不受影响,即使在单剂量策略的悲观假设下也是如此.
结论:
- 预计切换到单剂量HPV疫苗接种计划将维持宫癌的减少.
- 即使考虑到关于疫苗有效性和耐用性的悲观假设,这一点也适用.
- 随着时间的推移,对单剂量HPV疫苗疗效的持续监测对于公共卫生政策至关重要.
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