迈向公平的少年司法风险评估:考虑临床,社区和统计公平性
Joseph R Cohen1, Morgan S Stutts1, Theemeshni Govender1
1University of Illinois, Department of Psychology.
Psychological assessment
|January 26, 2026
概括
少年司法风险评估可以通过专注于道德脱离和同行犯罪来更公平. 这些因素通过社区投入和统计分析来确定,提高了预测犯罪行为的公平性.
科学领域:
- 法医心理学 法医心理学
- 青少年司法研究研究
- 风险评估方法的方法论
背景情况:
- 风险评估是少年司法系统 (JJS) 的标准,但其公平性和与社区观点的协调性尚不清楚.
- 现有的协议可能无法充分捕捉与不同青少年群体相关的风险因素的细微差别.
- 在JSS中存在需要公平和社区知情的风险评估工具.
研究的目的:
- 在未成年人风险评估中引入和测试公平性的多方面的定义.
- 从社区利益相关者 (照顾者和青少年) 的角度来看,识别出犯罪行为的突出风险领域.
- 在大量参与JJS的年轻人中统计检查识别的风险领域的公平性和预测准确性.
主要方法:
- 一个嵌入式混合方法研究,将定性访谈 (研究1) 与定量统计分析 (研究2) 整合在一起.
- 在JJS计划中对护理人员和青少年进行定性采访,以确定关键的风险领域.
- 在大量青少年样本中使用基于证据的医学方法和人工神经网络对突出风险领域的统计公平性分析.
主要成果:
- 气质,同龄人关系,认知风格和学校的运作被确定为突出的风险主题.
- 伦理脱离和犯罪同龄人成为未来违规行为的公平和统计学上的公平预测者.
- 使用这些因素的预测模型显示了可接受的性能和公平性;人工神经网络没有增强预测.
结论:
- 专注于道德脱离和同行犯罪的风险评估可以与社区价值观和统计公平性保持一致.
- 这些发现支持在少年司法系统中制定更公平,更有吸引力的风险管理策略.
- 该研究为创建具有临床相关性和统计学合理性的评估工具提供了一个框架.
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