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使用农场规模空间建模和效应,对中国海上风电潜力的估计大幅下降

Shiwei Xu^1,2, Gege Yin^1,2, Peiyu Hu^1,2

¹Institute of Energy, Peking University, Beijing, China.

Nature communications

|January 26, 2026

概括

中国的海上风电潜力估计为每年2.5-4.2 PWh,低于以前的数据,这是由于详细的农场级分析和唤醒损失建模. 这项研究为可持续能源规划提供了现实的前景.

科学领域:

可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
气候变化缓解缓解气候变化缓解
风能技术风能技术风能技术

背景情况:

准确的海上风能评估对于有效的气候变化战略和能源规划至关重要.
之前对中国海上风电潜力的估计可能无法充分考虑农场层面的复杂性.
了解风电场布局和效应的细微差别对于现实的潜在评估至关重要.

研究的目的:

为中国海上风电潜力提供详细的农场级评估.
将现实的轮布局,唤醒损失建模和未来气候场景纳入评估中.
为了比较近海底固定和深水浮动风电场的潜力和经济/技术可行性.

主要方法:

利用遥感数据实现现实的海上风力轮机布局.
实施唤醒损失建模,以考虑风电场内的能源减少.
分析了未来的气候场景,以预测潜在的风能发电.

主要成果:

中国的农场级海上风电潜力估计为2.5-4.2 PWh/年,远低于之前估计的超过5.6 PWh/年.
风力发电场内的浪损失效应发现高于此前的假设.
深水浮动风电场的潜在密度较高,但与近岸底固定风电场相比,风电场的成本更高.

结论:

农场层面的细节和唤醒损失建模对于准确的海上风电潜力评估至关重要.
该研究为中国的可再生能源目标和区域战略提供了更现实的基础.
促进浮动风能技术对于利用深水资源和推动中国可持续能源转型至关重要.

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