美国MASLD的未来负担:一个州级预测研究,2022-2050年
Thanathip Suenghataiphorn1, Kanachai Boonpiraks2, Vitchapong Prasitsumrit3
1Department of Internal Medicine, Griffin Hospital, Connecticut, United States.
Hepatology forum
|January 27, 2026
概括
代谢功能障碍相关的脂肪性肝病 (MASLD) 预测显示,美国未来的负担将会很大,成本和地理差异很大. 针对性的公共卫生战略对于应对这种不断增长的流行病至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 与代谢功能障碍相关的脂肪性肝病 (MASLD) 的患病率在全球范围内正在上升.
- 为有效的公共卫生规划,量化MASLD的未来地方负担至关重要.
- 目前的数据缺乏对MASLD未来影响的州具体预测.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2050年,美国各州的MASLD的未来负担.
- 估计MASLD相关的直接医疗保健成本.
- 为有针对性的公共卫生干预提供政策和资源配置的信息.
主要方法:
- 使用2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据开发了国家级预测模型.
- 使用时间序列预测 (ARIMA/ETS) 针对特定年龄和性别的MASLD DALY率 (1990-2021年).
- 将预测率应用于州人口预测,并通过概率灵敏度分析计算医疗保健成本.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,美国总体MASLD负担为550万DALY,医疗保健成本超过2.3万亿美元.
- 预计加利福尼亚州,德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州的绝对MASLD负担最高.
- 预计南方和阿巴拉契亚州的人均DALY率更高.
结论:
- 美国MASLD的未来负担是巨大的,不断增加的,并且在地理上不均.
- 国家层面的预测突出显示,需要针对性地制定区域公共卫生战略.
- 数据支持明智的州级政策和资源分配,以打击MASLD流行.
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