厄瓜多尔下呼吸道感染死亡率的时间趋势,2012-2022年
Reena Krishna1, Luis Furuya-Kanamori2, Harriet L S Lawford2
1School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia.
Tropical medicine and infectious disease
|January 27, 2026
概括
下呼吸道感染 (LRIs) 在厄瓜多尔显示出令人担忧的趋势转变,死亡率下降逆转为幼儿和老年人死亡率上升的趋势. 社会人口统计学因素显著影响了LRI死亡,在2020年后观察到的显著变化.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 下呼吸道感染 (LRIs) 在厄瓜多尔是一个重大的公共卫生挑战,导致大量的发病率和死亡率.
- 关于在厄瓜多尔背景下有效预防LRIs的有效预防策略的证据有限.
研究的目的:
- 分析与2012年至2022年厄瓜多尔LRI死亡率相关的特定年龄趋势,空间分布和社会人口统计学风险因素.
- 在COVID-19大流行之前和之后识别LRI死亡模式的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了厄瓜多尔国家统计和人口普查研究所 (INEC) 的2012-2022年国家死亡率数据.
- 雇员joinpoint回归用于特定年龄性别趋势分析和多变量后勤回归来评估风险因素.
- 按省份映射LRI年龄标准化死亡率 (ASMR) 并计算百分比变化.
主要成果:
- 在0至4岁和5至15岁的儿童中,在两种性别中都观察到LRI死亡率从下降趋势向增加趋势的逆转.
- 在70岁及以上的男性 (2014-2019) 和女性 (2016-2019) 中发现了显著的死亡率上升趋势.
- 瓜亚斯省呈现出最高的平均LRI ASMR (30.90死亡/100,000),而奥雷拉纳州在2012-2019年间显示出最大的百分比增长 (419.54%).
- 在2020年之前,LRI死亡率与性别,年龄,教育,种族,死亡地点和气候区域有显著的关联,在COVID-19后出现了显著的变化.
结论:
- 厄瓜多尔在LRI死亡趋势中经历了令人担忧的转变,特别影响幼儿和老年人.
- LRI死亡率的空间和社会人口差异很明显,需要有针对性的公共卫生干预措施.
- 在厄瓜多尔,COVID-19大流行似乎影响了与LRIs相关的风险因素和死亡率模式.
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