基于CART-Apriori方法对城市居民旅行方式选择的研究
Hui Song1, Xinxin Wang1, Wen Tian2,3
1College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai, 201620, China.
Scientific reports
|January 27, 2026
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的CART-Apriori模型来预测城市旅行模式的选择,达到82.77%的准确性. 影响选择的关键因素包括距离,目的,汽车所有权和转移.
科学领域:
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 运输科学 运输科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 传统的离散选择模型在城市旅行行为分析中提供了可解释性,但预测准确性有限.
- 机器学习模型提供了高的预测准确性,但往往缺乏可解释性,阻碍了运输中的实际应用.
- 弥合预测能力和可解释性之间的差距对于理解和影响城市旅行模式选择至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查城市旅行行为,并确定影响中型中国城市旅行模式选择的关键因素.
- 开发和评估一个混合预测模型,将机器学习和关联规则挖掘结合起来,以提高准确性和可解释性.
- 揭示最具影响力的旅行规则和驱动特定城市旅行模式选择的因素.
主要方法:
- 开发一种混合的分类和回归树 (CART) -先验预测模型,集成CART用于预测和先验用于规则提取.
- 使用性能指标,包括准确性,卡帕系数和宏观F1得分,用于定量模型比较.
- 使用RuleFit模型提取非线性关系,并将其转换为基于规则的特征,用于多项逻辑模型.
主要成果:
- 卡特-阿普里奥里模型的平均整体预测准确率为82.77%.
- 影响旅行方式选择的关键因素,按重要性排列,是旅行距离,旅行目的,汽车所有权和转机次数.
- 具体的模式偏好与以下因素有关:步行 (距离),私人/共享汽车 (直接旅行),共享自行车 (1-3公里通勤),公共汽车 (距离/转移) 和乘车 (1-3公里有转移).
结论:
- 集成的CART-Apriori模型有效地提高了城市旅行模式选择的预测准确性.
- 旅行距离,目的,汽车所有权和转移要求是城市居民旅行方式决定的关键决定因素.
- 了解这些因素和相关规则可以为有针对性的城市规划和交通政策提供信息.
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