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基于场景的框架用于多源可再生能源公园的空间评估:伊朗麦克兰地区的案例研究
Zeinab Sazvar1, Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh2,3, Hamide Mahmoodi4
1School of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Scientific reports
|January 27, 2026
概括
本研究提出了伊朗可再生能源规划的空间框架.
科学领域:
- 计划可再生能源的规划
- 空间评估的空间评估
- 可持续发展的能源发展
背景情况:
- 伊朗麦克兰地区拥有多样化的可再生能源资源.
- 综合规划对于实现可持续能源目标至关重要.
- 现有的规划方法可能无法完全捕捉空间复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个基于场景的空间评估框架.
- 支持太阳能,风能和地热能发电厂的综合规划.
- 分析麦克兰地区的可再生能源潜力.
主要方法:
- 包含了22个空间标准和16个空间限制.
- 使用了有序加权平均 (OWA) 方法.
- 模拟的决策情景从悲观到乐观.
主要成果:
- 高潜力区域因场景和能源类型而异.
- 悲观的情况:9.14% (太阳能/风能) 和10.96% (地热).
- 最乐观的情况:20.25% (太阳能),23.6% (风能) 和30.13% (地热).
结论:
- 该框架提供了一个可转移的,空间显式的方法.
- 支持可持续能源技术规划.
- 旨在减少可再生能源项目的投资风险.
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