在COVID-19中医院死亡率的动态临床和实验室预测者:多变量Cox回归研究
Desislava Arabadzhiyska1, Tanya Deneva1,2, Rumen Stefanov3
1Department of Clinical Laboratory, Medical University of Plovdiv, University Hospital "St. George", 4000 Plovdiv, Bulgaria.
Biomedicines
|January 28, 2026
概括
预测COVID-19早期死亡风险涉及年龄,性别和炎症标志物. 到第7天,系统性炎症,氧化应激和肝功能显著影响严重病例的结果.
科学领域:
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 确定住院COVID-19患者早期和动态预测死亡率的因素对于预后和治疗至关重要.
- COVID-19 提出了一个重大挑战,需要对死亡率决定因素有更深入的了解.
研究的目的:
- 评估中度和重度COVID-19患者住院死亡率的临床和实验室预测因素.
- 利用多变量Cox比例危险回归分析来识别显著的预测因素.
主要方法:
- 对168名成年RT-PCR确诊COVID-19患者 (18-64岁) 的回顾性队列研究.
- 在住院第一天和第七天收集人口统计数据 (年龄,性别) 和实验室参数.
- 逐步考克斯回归模型对总队列和严重疾病亚组的应用.
主要成果:
- 在第一天,死亡率预测因素包括年龄较大,男性性别,淋巴细胞百分比较低,以及高甲素 (PCT).
- 在第7天,在严重病例中,死亡率与性别,PCT,乙氨基酸百分比,费里丁,维生素D和马-氨基转移酶 (GGT) 有关.
- 在第7天的总队列中,年龄,PCT,IL-6和GGT是独立的预测因素.
结论:
- 早期COVID-19死亡风险受到人口统计和炎症标志物的影响.
- 到第7天,全身炎症,氧化应激和肝功能障碍的生化指标成为严重COVID-19的结果的更强有力的决定因素.
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