预测每日环境PM2.5度在青岛市使用深度学习和混合可解释模型,并使用SHAP分析驱动因素.
Zhenfang He1,2, Qingchun Guo1,2,3, Zuhan Zhang1
1School of Geography and Environment, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China.
Toxics
|January 28, 2026
概括
一个新的混合深度学习模型准确地预测了每天的PM2.5空气污染. 这种先进的模型结合了CNN,BiLSTM和Transformer,为公共卫生和环境政策提供了宝贵的见解.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 中国的城市化加剧了空气污染,特别是细颗粒物 (PM2.5),这对公众健康构成重大风险.
- 准确预测PM2.5度对于实施有效的缓解策略和保护人类健康至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估先进的深度学习模型,以准确地每天预测PM2.5度.
- 确定影响青岛市PM2.5水平的关键气象和大气因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了青岛市气象因素和大气污染物的数据集.
- 对比了各种深度学习模型的预测性能:RNN,ANN,CNN,BiLSTM,Transformer,以及一种新的混合CNN-BiLSTM-Transformer架构.
- 采用沙普利添加剂解释 (SHAP) 来确定不同因素对PM2.5.5的影响.
主要成果:
- 混合CNN-BiLSTM-变压器模型表现出卓越的预测准确性,实现了5.4236μg/m3的低RMSE,4.0220μg/m3的MAE,22.7791%的MAPE,以及0.9743.3的高R.
- SHAP分析确定了PM10,CO,大气平均温度,O3和SO2作为影响PM2.5度的关键因素.
- 混合模型有效地提取本地特征,捕捉时间依赖性,并增强全球模式识别.
结论:
- 混合CNN-BiLSTM-变压器模型为PM2.5预测提供了一个强大的和可解释的方法.
- 调查结果为公共卫生管理和环境政策制定提供了宝贵的见解,以应对空气污染.
- 这项研究推进了使用集成深度学习技术对空气污染的多维预测.
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