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中东和北非地区的前列腺癌:行为和环境暴露的可归因负担
Magie Tamraz1, Razan Al Tartir2, Sara El Meski2
1Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, American University of Beirut, Riad El Solh, Beirut 1107, Lebanon.
Toxics
|January 28, 2026
概括
中东和北非地区的前列腺癌与水质和吸烟等可修改因素有关. 解决这些问题可以显著降低癌症发病率,饮用水中酸盐是其中的主要原因.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 中东和北非 (MENA) 地区的前列腺癌受行为和环境因素的影响.
- 在MENA地区缺乏可预防的前列腺癌病例的全面估计.
研究的目的:
- 估计MENA地区50岁以上男性可修改暴露的人口归因分数 (PAF).
- 在可行的干预场景下评估潜在的前列腺癌发病率降低.
主要方法:
- 结合区域流行数据与元分析的相对风险,以计算各种暴露的PAF.
- 包括烟草吸烟,肥胖,身体不活动,饮食因素,水污染物 (酸盐,三甲,,),空气污染 (PM2.5,NO2) 和职业柴油废气.
- 通过合成队列模拟和通过蒙特卡洛采样量化不确定性的验证估计.
主要成果:
- 饮用水中酸盐的暴露是最大的贡献者 (17.4%),其次是烟草吸烟 (9.5%) 和身体不活动 (6.7%).
- 消除所有暴露可能会减少45.5%的发病率;在四个关键暴露中可行的减少可能会产生12.1%的影响.
- 三甲暴露占5.0%的病例.
结论:
- 建议优先考虑综合水质管理,烟草控制,生活方式干预和环境监测,以减少MENA地区的前列腺癌负担.
- 关于饮用水中酸盐暴露的发现是探索性的,因为证据有限,应该是产生假设的.
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