在接受无痛胃肠内镜检查的老年患者中,用于预测与镇静相关的不良事件的诺姆图
Liu Xu1, Qiyuan Yin1, Hui Liu1
1Department of Anesthesiology, Wenjiang Hospital of Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital, Chengdu Wenjiang District People's Hospital, Chengdu, China.
Frontiers in medicine
|January 28, 2026
概括
一个新的预测模型准确地识别了在无痛的胃肠内镜检查期间面临与镇静相关不良事件 (SRAE) 风险的老年患者. 该工具有助于个性化镇静和管理策略,以提高患者的安全性.
科学领域:
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 麻醉学 麻醉学
背景情况:
- 接受无痛胃肠内镜的老年患者面临由于生理脆弱性和并发症而增加了与镇静有关的不良事件 (SRAE) 的风险.
- 在手术前风险分层可以提高外科手术期间的安全性,并个性化镇静策略.
研究的目的:
- 开发和内部验证在接受无痛胃肠内镜检查的老年患者中SRAE的预测模型.
- 使用Firth-penalized多变量逻辑回归来创建一个Nomogram来估计SRAE风险.
主要方法:
- 来自520名老年患者的前性数据被分为培训 (n=364) 和验证 (n=156) 组.
- 费尔斯的惩罚后勤回归确定了SRAE (低血压或低血压) 的独立预测因素.
- 使用ROC曲线,校准图和决策曲线分析开发和验证了一个名图.
主要成果:
- SRAE发生在45.6%的训练组患者中.
- 独立预测因素包括老年,打,虚弱,高血压,慢性肺炎,长时间禁食和更高的埃托米达特-普罗波剂量;定期体育活动具有保护作用.
- 在验证集 (AUC=0.92) 中,名图表表显示出强大的预测性能,校准良好,临床实用性良好.
结论:
- 使用可访问的临床变量的预测模型可以准确地评估在接受无痛胃肠内镜检查的老年患者中SRAE风险.
- 这种模式支持个性化镇静和患者管理,可能改善结果.
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