投资于健康和减少死亡率,以应对人口减少问题
Stuart Gietel-Basten1, Wiraporn Pothisiri2, Sergei Scherbov3
1Divisions of Social Science and Public Policy, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China.
Bulletin of the World Health Organization
|January 28, 2026
概括
减少死亡率,而不是提高生育率,是对抗人口减少的更有效的政策. 对卫生系统的投资提供了更快的人口回报,并与人权保持一致.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 人口研究 人口研究
背景情况:
- 世界各地的政府都在实施孕产妇政策,以抵消人口减少.
- 产前政策往往是无效的,可能侵犯生殖权利.
研究的目的:
- 评估降低死亡率与增加生育率在缓解人口减少方面的有效性.
- 确定最佳的政策策略,以应对人口问题.
主要方法:
- 到2050年的人口预测是使用联合国数据为28个国家建模的.
- 场景比较基线,替代水平生育率增加和死亡率降低到日本水平.
主要成果:
- 降低死亡率以与日本的水平相匹配,在制人口减少方面显著超过生育率的增加.
- 卫生投资对人口减少比孕产妇政策更有效,特别是在东欧和东南欧.
结论:
- 减少可预防的死亡率应该是实现更快,与权利一致的返回的核心人口战略.
- 建议加强卫生系统和公共卫生干预措施,以实现可持续的人口变化.
- 将卫生措施与制度改革相结合,可以确保全面应对人口问题.
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