气象和社会经济对中国臭氧的影响:过去和未来的分析
Yinchen Chen1,2, Zunli Dai1, Xiaohong Wang1
1College of Environment and Safety Engineering, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266042, China.
iScience
|January 28, 2026
概括
中国的季节性臭氧 (O3) 水平是由天气和前体排放驱动的,在温暖和寒冷的季节有不同的模式. 未来的预测显示,根据气候和社会经济路径,臭氧的趋势会有所变化,因此需要量身定制的空气质量管理战略.
科学领域:
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候建模气候模型
背景情况:
- 臭氧 (O3) 是一种具有复杂季节动态的重要空气污染物.
- 了解O3的变化对于中国的公共卫生和环境保护至关重要.
- 之前的研究往往缺乏对跨季节的气象,社会经济和前体影响的综合分析.
研究的目的:
- 调查中国各地臭氧度的季节性变化.
- 量化气象因素,社会经济影响和O3前体对臭氧动态的影响.
- 根据不同的气候和社会经济情景 (SSP) 预测未来的臭氧趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用随机森林模型与部分依赖图片进行分析.
- 综合日常监测数据和ERA5再分析数据 (2015-2020年).
- 纳入合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 预测到2100年.
主要成果:
- 温暖季节的臭氧峰值位于北30度以北,特别是在中国北部,受到温度,湿度和风的驱动.
- 寒冷季节的臭氧模式受到大气停滞和减少的太阳辐射的影响.
- 场景分析揭示了区域性多样化的未来臭氧轨迹,不同驱动因素的影响各不相同.
结论:
- 臭氧动态在中国各地表现出显著的区域和季节性异质性.
- 有效的空气质量管理需要考虑气候和社会经济变化的区域具体战略.
- 该研究为减轻臭氧污染的适应性政策提供了证据基础.
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