2型糖尿病全因和心血管死亡率的预后模型:系统审查
Monica Kundu1, Mark P Funnell1,2, Zahra Karimi3
1Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester General Hospital, Leicester, UK.
Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association
|January 28, 2026
概括
2型糖尿病 (T2DM) 死亡率的预后模型差异很大. 开发强大,经过验证的模型对于更好的风险分层和糖尿病护理中的有针对性的预防至关重要.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 内分泌学 在内分泌学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 患有2型糖尿病 (T2DM) 的人面临全因和心血管死亡的风险较高.
- 预后模型对于早期识别T2DM高风险个体至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查T2DM死亡率的现有预后模型.
- 为未来的模型开发提供信息,提高预测性能,并指导预防策略.
主要方法:
- 系统地搜索奥维德的MEDLINE,Scopus和科学网络 (2015-2024年).
- 包括26个队列研究,分析T2DM所有原因或心血管死亡率的模型.
- 使用CHARMS检查清单进行数据提取,使用PROBAST工具进行偏差风险评估.
主要成果:
- 该审查包括26项不同地理来源的队列研究.
- 大多数模型都专注于全因死亡率,具有共同的5年预测时间.
- 差别的中位数 (C-统计) 为0.77,但校准方法和报告不一致.
结论:
- 现有的T2DM死亡率预测模型在方法,性能和验证方面表现出显著的异质性.
- 局限的外部验证和不一致的校准报告需要开发更强大的和可通用的模型.
- 需要改进的模型,以便在糖尿病管理中准确地进行临床风险分层.
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