骨折概率预测了与病相关的住院:曼尼托巴BMD注册表
Fatima Zarzour1, Eugene V McCloskey2,3,4, Helena Johansson5
1Department of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada.
概括
骨折风险评估工具 (FRAX) 的概率得分与未来的跌倒相关住院病例有关. 这种关联甚至适用于未直接由骨折引起的跌倒,突出FRAX.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 骨质疏松症研究 骨质疏松症研究
背景情况:
- 目前的骨折风险评估工具 (FRAX) 不包括以前的跌倒作为主要预测因素.
- 现有的研究表明,高FRAX计算的骨折概率和意外跌倒之间存在相关性,特别是在老年男性中.
研究的目的:
- 调查FRAX衍生重大骨质疏松性骨折 (MOF) 概率与随后因跌倒而导致住院住院的风险之间的关联.
- 为了确定这种关联是否在与并发骨折无关的跌倒中持续存在.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自曼尼托巴BMD计划的88,684名40岁以上个体的数据,评估FRAX MOF的概率.
- 将DXA数据与基于人口的住院记录联系起来,以确定与跌倒相关的事件.
- 采用考克斯回归来分析基于MOF概率的秋季相关住院时间,有或没有骨矿物质密度 (BMD).
主要成果:
- 在增加MOF概率和较高的跌倒相关住院风险之间发现了显著的关联 (HR 2.47没有BMD,HR 2.48有BMD每SD增加).
- 即使分析与并发骨折无关的跌倒 (3.8%的病例),这种关联仍然很强.
- 大多数个体FRAX变量,不包括父母的关节骨折,显示出与跌倒相关住院治疗的积极关系.
结论:
- 来自FRAX的骨折概率是未来因跌倒而导致住院治疗的强有力的预测指标.
- 预测值扩展到与新骨折直接无关的跌幅.
- 这些发现表明,FRAX可能会提供比骨折预测之外的更广泛的洞察力,了解跌倒风险.
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