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在领先的流行病学期刊中探索正确使用p值和置信区间
Montana Kekaimalu Hunter1, Anthony James Russell2, George Maldonado3
1Frank H. Netter MD School of Medicine, Quinnipiac University, North Haven, CT, USA.
Global epidemiology
|January 29, 2026
概括
流行病学研究表明,统计报告得到了改进,主要期刊中没有对p值或置信区间的彻底误解. 建议对报告进行细化,例如避免二进制语言和强调效果大小,以实现更清晰的统计通信.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 科学沟通科学沟通
背景情况:
- 对零假设测试 (p值) 和置信区间的误解是流行病学中持续存在的问题.
- 以往主要期刊试图阻止这种做法的努力对现代文学产生了不明确的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估最近流行病学文献中p值和置信区间误解的频率和类型.
- 确定加强流行病学统计报告的机会.
主要方法:
- 研究人员对2022年发表在三个主要流行病学期刊上的64篇论文进行了随机抽样.
- 两位作者独立地根据2016年指导方针对统计误解进行了分类.
主要成果:
- 在审查的论文中没有观察到对p值或置信区间的彻底统计误解.
- 改进的机会包括减少"显著"与"非显著"的语言,始终配对p值与效果大小,并提供更全面的置信区间解释.
- 确定了将统计结果与临床和公共卫生背景整合的值得称赞的做法.
结论:
- 现代流行病学研究表明,统计报告得到了改进,尽管对解释存在一些担忧.
- 建议包括避免二进制语言,强制报告效果大小,并开发超出无假设测试的解释置信区间的方法.
- 这些改进旨在使该领域与不断变化的标准保持一致,同时保持p值的实用性.
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