气候网络揭示了热浪和寒浪之间的跨季节远程连接
1School of Physical Science and Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|January 29, 2026
概括
气候变化通过跨季节的联系将夏季的热浪与冬季的寒浪联系起来. 这些极端天气事件受到气候模式的影响,改善了预测能力.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了全球极端天气事件,包括热浪和寒浪.
- 预测这些极端是复杂的,因为级联和多层次的影响.
- 传统分析通常将极端事件研究限制在区域或天气尺度上.
研究的目的:
- 研究北极夏季热浪和冬季寒浪之间的跨季节远程连接.
- 了解大规模气候模式在调节这些连接中的作用.
- 提高极端天气事件的季节性至年间预测.
主要方法:
- 使用复杂的网络框架.
- 分析了来自国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心 (1981-2020) 的全球再分析数据.
- 识别了远程连接及其通过气候模式的调制,如厄尔尼诺-南方振荡和北极振荡.
主要成果:
- 确定了强大的跨季节远程连接,将夏季的热浪与冬季的寒浪联系起来.
- 证明这些联系是由大规模的气候模式 (例如,厄尔尼诺-南方振荡,北极振荡) 调节的.
- 揭示了半球和季节之间以前未经探索的相关性.
结论:
- 夏季热浪和冬季寒浪之间存在跨季节的远程连接,超越季节界限.
- 大规模的气候模式在弥合夏季和冬季变化方面发挥着关键作用.
- 这些发现增强了季节性到跨年性极端天气事件预测的前景.
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