全球COVID-19死亡率评估从2020年到2024年的流离失所
Xiyin Chen1, Edward Ye1, Benjamin John Cowling1
1School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
JAMA network open
|January 29, 2026
概括
后COVID-19死亡率下降很少与死亡率流离失所有关. 大多数欧洲国家尚未恢复大流行前的死亡率趋势,这表明需要更好的全民保护战略.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,COVID-19大流行严重影响了长期死亡率趋势.
- 预先的数据表明,人们可能会回到大流行前的死亡率模式,可能会受到死亡率偏移的影响.
研究的目的:
- 分析COVID-19大流行期间和之后的全球全因死亡率趋势.
- 评估2023-2024年死亡率迁移和观察到的死亡率下降之间的关联.
主要方法:
- 追溯性,跨国,横截面时间序列研究 (2015-2024年).
- 利用了来自人类死亡数据库的特定国家,年龄调整的死亡率数据.
- 使用波桑回归模型定义的过度死亡率和死亡率位移.
主要成果:
- 在34个国家中有3个国家检测到死亡率流离失所,主要在老年人群中.
- 到2024年,美国将回到大流行前的死亡率模式.
- 大多数欧洲国家在2024年之前还没有恢复大流行前的死亡率轨迹,显示出持续的过度死亡率.
结论:
- 流行后的死亡率下降很少与死亡率的转移有关.
- 许多欧洲国家需要进一步调查为什么疫情前的死亡率下降模式没有恢复.
- 结果强调了在流行病期间优先考虑全民保护战略的重要性.
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