在Cauca河谷登革热的随机建模,分析和模拟:一个案例研究
Diego Alejandro Becerra-Becerra1, Jhonier Rangel1,2, Viswanathan Arunachalam1
1Department of Statistics, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia.
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
|January 29, 2026
概括
哥伦比亚的登革热爆发显示出明显的年龄特异性模式,成年人面临更高的感染负担. 先进的建模有助于理解传播动态,以更好地控制公共卫生.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 登革热在哥伦比亚,特别是在考卡河谷,构成了严重的公共卫生威胁,季节性和长期变化的影响下,经常爆发.
- 了解年龄特定的登革热传播对于开发有效,有针对性的公共卫生干预措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个年龄结构的随机宿主-载体模型来分析哥伦比亚登革热传播动态.
- 为了比较青少年和成年人群之间的登革热发病率模式.
- 评估随机微分方程 (SDE) 和季节性自回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型在登革热监测和预测方面的有用性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个年龄结构的随机宿主-载体模型,使用一个分区SIR-SI框架和随机微分方程 (SDEs).
- 人口被分为青少年 (0-17岁) 和成年人 (18岁以上).
- 模拟使用欧勒-马鲁雅马方法进行,结合文献参数,估计的疾病参数和SIVIGILA数据 (2013-2023). 一个SARIMA模型被用于补充预测.
主要成果:
- 在青少年和成人年龄组之间观察到明显的登革热流行病模式.
- 与年轻人相比,成年人整体感染负担较高.
- 无论是SDE建模还是SARIMA预测,都证明了登革热监测和控制计划的互补价值.
结论:
- 年龄特定的建模为登革热传播动态提供了关键的见解.
- 考虑到特定年龄的风险的有针对性的干预措施对于哥伦比亚有效的登革热控制至关重要.
- 机械和统计建模方法的整合增强了登革热监测和预测能力.
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