增强数据和神经网络用于可靠的流行病预测:在意大利应用于COVID-19
Giacomo Dimarco1, Federica Ferrarese1, Lorenzo Pareschi1,2
1Department of Mathematics and Computer Science & Center for Modeling, Computing and Statistics (CMCS), University of Ferrara, via Machiavelli 30, 44121 Ferrara, Italy.
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
|January 29, 2026
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的数据增强方法,使用分区模型和深度学习来提高神经网络的准确性. 该方法提高了物理信息神经网络 (PINNs) 和非线性自回归 (NAR) 模型的预测性能.
科学领域:
- 计算科学是一种计算科学.
- 机器学习是机器学习.
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 神经网络训练需要大量,多样化的数据集,以实现最佳性能.
- 数据增强技术对于提高模型概括性和准确性至关重要.
- 准确的预测建模对于理解和管理复杂系统至关重要,例如疾病爆发.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一种新的数据增强策略,以改善神经网络训练.
- 将拟议策略的有效性与两个不同的神经网络架构:PINNs和NAR模型进行比较.
- 通过对COVID-19流行病的数值模拟来验证该方法.
主要方法:
- 通过结合不确定性的校准区块模型生成合成数据.
- 将分区建模与深度学习技术集成为数据增强.
- 在增强数据集上培训和评估物理信息神经网络 (PINNs) 和非线性自行回归 (NAR) 模型.
主要成果:
- 用拟议的数据增强策略进行训练的神经网络显示显著改善了预测性能.
- 非线性自回归 (NAR) 模型在短期预测方面表现出色,提供了准确的定量估计.
- 物理信息神经网络 (PINNs) 能够有效地捕捉定性长期趋势,尽管定量预测不那么精确.
结论:
- 拟议的数据增强策略提高了神经网络的准确性,用于预测任务.
- NAR模型适用于准确的短期预测,而PINNs更适合探索长期动态趋势.
- 该方法通过其应用于COVID-19流行病模拟来验证,显示其实际实用性.
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