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Updated: Jan 31, 2026

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在持续的全球变暖下,消失的近两年的振荡在持续的全球变暖下消失
Fuhai Luo1, Fei Xie2, Tianjun Zhou3,4
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance, School of Systems Science and Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|January 29, 2026
概括
全球变暖可能导致平流层近两年振荡 (QBO) 减弱和消失,影响气候预报. 这种减弱与热带上升和波浪活动的增加有关,这对未来的气候变化适应提出了挑战.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 平流层近两年振荡 (QBO) 影响全球天气和气候变化.
- 近几十年来,QBO振幅减弱,出现了前所未有的破坏.
- 长期的QBO演变及其对热层的影响仍然不确定.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究QBO在全球变暖下未来的演变.
- 评估QBO对热层循环和气候可预测性的影响.
- 了解驱动QBO变化的机制.
主要方法:
- 利用了CMIP6模型,其预测延伸到2100年以后.
- 进行了针对性的敏感性实验.
- 分析了QBO振幅,周期,热带上升和波浪活动的变化.
主要成果:
- 预计全球变暖导致QBO的幅度逐渐减弱,时间缩短.
- 在持续的高排放场景下,QBO有可能完全消失.
- 减弱是由于热带上升的增强;缩短是由于上升和波浪活动的加剧.
结论:
- 预计的QBO变化将降低2-3年热层气候预测的可预测性.
- 对于气候变化适应,QBO的潜在消失带来了新的挑战.
- 了解这些QBO动态对于准确的气候预测至关重要.
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