关于涉及多个公共安全事件的复合灾难谣言传播放大效应的研究
Zilin Xie1,2, Meng Lan1,2, Tao Xu3
1School of Safety Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Fundamental research
|January 30, 2026
概括
涉及多个安全事件的复合灾难谣言比单一事件的谣言传播得更快. 一个新的模型证实了这种放大效应,这对于在危机期间管理错误信息至关重要.
科学领域:
- 灾难通信 灾难通信
- 信息的传播和传播.
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 涉及多个公共安全事件的复合灾害谣言与一般灾害谣言相比,呈现出不同的传播模式.
- 了解复合灾难谣言传播中的放大效应对于有效的公共安全管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 检查和验证复合灾难谣言传播中的放大效应.
- 提出一种新的谣言传播模型,用于涉及两个同时发生的复合灾难.
- 为未来的灾难谣言管理策略提供见解.
主要方法:
- 开发一种新的谣言传播模型,其灵感来源于传染病动态.
- 包括一个"双重危险敏感无知者"组来代表一个独特的初始人群.
- 经验分析使用现实世界案例的综合灾难谣言 (地震和大流行) 在四川,中国 (2022).
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型成功地捕捉了复合灾难谣言的放大效应.
- 复合灾害谣言,特别是与流行病有关的自然灾害谣言,比一般灾害谣言的峰值传播强度更高.
- 该模型在四川案例中的应用证实了放大效应.
结论:
- 相比于单一事件的谣言,复合灾难的谣言显示出显著的放大效应.
- 这种新型模型为理解和预测复杂灾难错误信息的传播提供了一个框架.
- 这些发现为加强灾难谣言管理和减轻公共安全风险提供了宝贵的指导.
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