疫苗对健康的间接影响 疫苗的经济模型:我们是否应该包括它们,以及我们如何建模它们?
Rachel J Oidtman1, Min Huang2, Walter A Orenstein3
1Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA. rachel.oidtman@merck.com.
Applied health economics and health policy
|January 30, 2026
概括
疫苗接种计划的间接影响,如群体保护,至关重要,但在经济评估中经常被遗漏. 本研究比较了用于评估这些影响的静态和动态传输模型 (DTM),强调了需要更好的数据和指导方针的需要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 接种疫苗的间接影响 (群体保护,血清型替代,年龄转移) 显著影响现实世界的计划有效性.
- 由于复杂性,数据限制和混因素,经济评估往往不包括间接影响.
- 准确评估疫苗接种计划的影响需要考虑这些人口层面的动态.
研究的目的:
- 将静态和动态传播模型 (DTM) 进行比较,以便在经济评估中纳入间接疫苗接种的影响.
- 为了说明建模选择对流行病学和经济结果的影响.
- 倡导改进数据和方法指南,以建模间接影响.
主要方法:
- 静态和动态传动模型 (DTM) 的审查和比较.
- 案例研究说明了模型应用,优势和局限性.
- 分析模型结构,数据和参数如何影响结果预测.
主要成果:
- 静态模型更简单,但可能会错过关键的时间和人口动态.
- DTM捕捉了人口混合和血清型竞争等复杂因素,但需要更多的数据和复杂性.
- 建模选择显著影响预测的流行病学和经济结果,可能导致不同的结论.
结论:
- 人们认识到需要在疫苗接种计划的经济评估中包括间接影响.
- 咨询和评估机构提供的有限的方法指南阻碍了一致的实施.
- 需要共同努力来产生高质量的数据,并制定模拟间接影响的指导方针,以改善基于证据的决策.
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