复杂的领土环境中的关键基础设施的多重自然危险映射:提出一种新的方法论方法
Maria Castiglione1, Marco Capodici1, Santo Fabio Corsino1
1Department of Engineering, University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, Edificio 8, 90128, Palermo, Italy.
Journal of environmental management
|January 30, 2026
概括
这项研究引入了关键基础设施的多危险评估 (MHA) 方法,发现西西里80%的废水处理厂面临高或非常高的自然危险暴露. 基于相互作用的权重策略被证明是最有效的准确的风险评估.
科学领域:
- *地质科学和环境风险评估
- * 地理空间分析和基础设施脆弱性
背景情况:
- * 关键基础设施面临着复杂地区自然危险的日益严重威胁.
- *现有的多重危险评估 (MHA) 方法往往缺乏对危险相互依存性的全面考虑.
- *意大利的西西里是个合适的案例研究,因为该地区的各种自然灾害发生率很高.
研究的目的:
- * 开发和测试一种新的MHA方法方法来评估关键基础设施暴露.
- * 为了比较三种不同的权重策略用于多危险指数 (MHI) 构成.
- * 评估西西里废水处理厂 (WWTP) 对多种自然灾害的脆弱性.
主要方法:
- *将协调的危险地图 (地震,滑坡,洪水,火山,海) 整合到一个统一的地理空间框架中.
- *采用三种权重策略:平等权重 (S1),基于存在的动态权重 (S2) 和基于相互作用的动态权重 (S3).
- * 作为意大利西西里地区代表性关键基础设施的废水处理厂 (WWTP).
主要成果:
- *权重策略的选择对空间分布和危险级别的分类产生重大影响.
- * 基于相互作用的动态加权 (S3) 提供了最平衡的MHI,考虑到复合和级联效应.
- *西西里大约80%的水产养殖场位于根据S3战略被归类为高危或非常高危地区.
结论:
- * 开发的MHA方法有效地识别了多重危险环境中的关键基础设施漏洞.
- * 基于相互作用的权重策略 (S3) 建议用于更准确的多危险风险评估.
- * 迫切需要基于危险的规划和整合脆弱性数据以进行先进的多重风险建模.
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