巴西乳腺癌死亡率的区域差异:使用未经纠正和调整的数据进行空间分析,2000-2023年
Juliana Dantas de Araújo Santos Camargo1,2, Sávio Ferreira Camargo1,2, Amaxsell Thiago Barros de Souza3
1Postgraduate Program in Health Science, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN, Brazil.
Scientific reports
|January 30, 2026
概括
巴西的乳腺癌死亡率被低估了,尤其是在服务不足的地区. 调整揭示了显著的数据限制和持续的地理不平等,突出了需要更好的监测和有针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 乳腺癌是巴西妇女癌症死亡的主要原因.
- 现有的死亡率估计可能会被低估,因为数据质量问题,如不确定原因和报告不足.
研究的目的:
- 从2000年到2023年,研究20岁及以上的巴西女性乳腺癌死亡率的空间分布.
- 为了考虑到数据限制,比较未经纠正和调整的死亡率估计.
- 为了确定乳腺癌死亡率的地理不平等.
主要方法:
- 利用2000年至2023年的国家死亡率数据.
- 应用了世界卫生组织 (WHO) 和巴西地理和统计研究所 (IBGE) 的调整方法来纠正数据质量限制.
- 计算了年龄标准化的死亡率,并使用 choropleth 地图,Moran I 和空间协会局部指标 (LISA) 分析了空间模式.
主要成果:
- 在调整后,报告的乳腺癌死亡人数增加了17.3% (从328,319人增加到385,068人).
- 最初的调整对北方和东北地区的估计产生了重大影响 (在2000-2004年达到+69.9%),随着时间的推移,影响逐渐减弱.
- 富裕地区的死亡率始终较高,而调整显示,在历史上服务不足的地区,死亡率被低估.
结论:
- 在巴西,乳腺癌死亡率仍然存在显著的地理不平等.
- 数据质量限制和低估是影响死亡率估计的关键问题,特别是在服务不足的地区.
- 迫切需要有针对性的干预措施和改进的监测系统,以解决乳腺癌结果的差异.
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