气候负担不成比例的气温上升的负担在巴基斯坦的低出生体重
Syeda H Fatima1,2, Corey J A Bradshaw1, Zulfiqar A Bhutta3
1Healthy Environment and Lives (HEAL) Global Research Centre, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
BMC medicine
|January 31, 2026
概括
极端的高温在巴基斯坦显著增加了低出生体重,这对公众健康构成了重大挑战. 有针对性的干预措施至关重要,以保护脆弱的孕妇和新生儿免受气温上升的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 新生儿健康 新生儿健康
- 气候变化影响 气候变化影响
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升加剧了健康负担,不成比例地影响孕妇和新生儿.
- 低出生体重 (LBW) 是巴基斯坦的一个关键新生儿健康问题,导致死亡率和长期健康问题.
- 了解极端高温对LBW的影响对于公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估极端温度对巴基斯坦低出生体重 (LBW) 的影响.
- 确定高风险子组并估计LBW的可归因热负担.
- 预测未来的风险,并制定一个地区一级的热脆弱性指数.
主要方法:
- 一项空间时间序列研究分析了巴基斯坦全国代表性调查 (2008-2017).
- 在一个通用的混合效应框架中使用分布式滞后非线性模型来评估温度-LBW关联.
- 亚组分析检查了母亲教育,财富,居住和空气质量等因素;构建了一个热易受影响指数.
主要成果:
- 这项研究包括85,017名参与者,其中18.72%的婴儿患有LBW.
- 与热量相关的LBW风险因各省而异,相对风险在第99个温度百分点上高达1.91.
- 据估计,在研究期间,可归因于热量的LBW病例为1.240万,预计到2060年代将增加.
结论:
- 调查结果确定了巴基斯坦最容易受到与热有关的LBW的地区.
- 确定了关键的促成因素和高风险子组 (例如,教育程度较低的人,城市居民,暴露于空气污染的人).
- 该研究为在资源有限,面临温度上升的高风险环境中进行有针对性的干预提供了关键的见解.
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