用机器学习对丹麦头水流中的年度分散流量加权总度进行时空建模
Brian Kronvang1, Jørgen Windolf1, Henrik Tornbjerg1
1Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
Journal of environmental quality
|January 31, 2026
概括
机器学习可以准确地预测河流中的分散,识别诸如铺路区域和排水等关键因素. 该模型有助于计算含量,以改善丹麦的水质管理.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水质管理水质管理
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 全球淡水体中高总 (TP) 度导致了肥沃化和生态退化.
- 丹麦的头水流面临着分散污染的挑战,这影响了整体的水质.
- 对TP度的准确建模对于有效的环境管理和政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种机器学习 (ML) 模型,用于预测丹麦头水流中的年度流量加权TP度.
- 确定影响分散损失的关键流域特征.
- 应用已验证的模型来估计未经提升的采水区的TP负载.
主要方法:
- 从207个经过监测的丹麦头水流中 (1990-2019) 提取了年度流量加权的TP度数据.
- 利用了22个潜在的预测变量,并测试了70个ML算法.
- 采用了五重交叉验证策略,包括培训,验证和持久数据集; XGBoost被确定为最佳模型.
主要成果:
- 该XGBoost模型实现了高的解释能力 (R2=0.68训练,0.71交叉验证,0.66坚持).
- 关键预测因素包括铺路面积,排水面积,地下土壤粘土含量,耕种面积和银行侵蚀TP损失.
- 外部验证显示新流站的预测能力中等 (R2 = 0.41);模型应用估计了3200个流域的TP.
结论:
- 机器学习,特别是XGBoost,为模拟流中的分散提供了一个强大的工具.
- 捕捞特征,如土地使用和土壤特性,是TP度的重要驱动因素.
- 该模型成功支持估计丹麦未经修复的流域中的TP负载,有助于水资源管理.
相关概念视频
Steady Flow of a Fluid Stream
758
Consider a control volume, such as a pipe with solid boundaries, through which fluid flows and changes direction due to the impulse exerted by the resulting force from the pipe walls. In steady flow, the mass of fluid entering the control volume at a given time, t, with velocity v1, is equal to the mass leaving after infinitesimal time dt, with velocity v2.
During this process, the momentum of the fluid within the control volume remains constant over the time interval dt. By applying the...
During this process, the momentum of the fluid within the control volume remains constant over the time interval dt. By applying the...
758
The Phosphorus Cycle
43.9K
Unlike carbon, water, and nitrogen, phosphorus is not present in the atmosphere as a gas. Instead, most phosphorus in the ecosystem exists as compounds, such as phosphate ions (PO43-), found in soil, water, sediment and rocks. Phosphorus is often a limiting nutrient (i.e., in short supply). Consequently, phosphorus is added to most agricultural fertilizers, which can cause environmental problems related to runoff in aquatic ecosystems.
43.9K
Physiological Pharmacokinetic Models: Blood Flow-Limited Versus Diffusion-Limited Models
352
Physiological pharmacokinetic models, often called flow-limited or perfusion models, typically assume a swift drug distribution between tissue and venous blood, creating a rapid drug equilibrium. This premise is based on the idea that drug diffusion is extremely fast, and the cell membrane presents no barrier to drug permeation. In this scenario, where no drug binding occurs, the drug concentration in the tissue equals that of the venous blood leaving the tissue. This greatly simplifies the...
352
Diffusion
218.5K
Diffusion is the passive movement of substances down their concentration gradients—requiring no expenditure of cellular energy. Substances, such as molecules or ions, diffuse from an area of high concentration to an area of low concentration in the cytosol or across membranes. Eventually, the concentration will even out, with the substance moving randomly but causing no net change in concentration. Such a state is called dynamic equilibrium, which is essential for maintaining overall...
218.5K
Stream Function
2.1K
In two-dimensional incompressible fluid flow, the continuity equation is essential for ensuring mass conservation, meaning that any change in fluid entering or exiting a region is balanced by a corresponding change elsewhere. For incompressible flow, where density remains constant, this requirement simplifies to the condition that the divergence of the velocity field must be zero. Mathematically, this is expressed as,
2.1K
Simplified Synchronous Machine Model
778
The Synchronous Machine Model is a fundamental tool in analyzing and ensuring the transient stability of power systems. This model simplifies the representation of a synchronous machine under balanced three-phase positive-sequence conditions, assuming constant excitation and ignoring losses and saturation. The model is pivotal for understanding the behavior of synchronous generators connected to a power grid, particularly during transient events.
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
778


