空间时间预测和地下水储存异常的归因使用增强的混合深度学习建模与不确定性量化
Jina Yin1, Xinyao Hu2, Tongchao Nan1
1State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, China; Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
Journal of environmental management
|January 31, 2026
概括
先进的混合深度学习模型通过整合归因和不确定性量化,准确地预测地下水储存异常 (GWSA). 这种方法提高了水资源管理中知情决策的可靠性和可解释性.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源水文与水资源
- 环境科学中的人工智能
- 地理空间数据分析.
背景情况:
- 由于数据异质性,非线性和高维度,地下水预测面临着挑战.
- 传统的方法在捕捉复杂的地下水动态时,在准确性和可靠性方面扎.
- 需要透明和可靠的预测框架,整合多个分析组件.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估混合深度学习模型,以实现透明和可靠的地下水预测.
- 将地下水预测,归因分析和不确定性量化整合到一个连贯的框架中.
- 提高地下水储存异常 (GWSA) 预测的准确性和可解释性.
主要方法:
- 构建两个混合深度学习模型:CNN-Attention-LSTM (CAL) 和变压器-LSTM (TL).
- 应用夏普利添加式解释来解释GWSA的内在贡献者.
- 纳入斯坦的变化梯度下降 (SVGD) 用于不确定性量化和概率预测.
主要成果:
- 两种CAL和TL模型都在预测长江河流域的GWSA时空异质性方面取得了高准确性 (平均R2>0.90).
- 在局部GWSA预测中,CAL模型表现出卓越的性能.
- 气象因素被确定为中下长江流域GWSA的主要贡献者 (80.66%).
- SVGD提高了预测可靠性,大多数观测都在95%的置信区间内.
结论:
- 拟议的混合深度学习框架为准确的GWSA预测和基于风险的决策提供了重大进展.
- 这些模型为预测结果和特征贡献提供了更好的解释性.
- 该方法对各种环境预测任务具有广泛的适用性和可扩展性.
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